A.P. Møller – Maersk has revised its financial forecasts for 2026 upwards, having observed demand exceeding expectations in the global container market, especially in traffic originating from the Far East, and a sustained increase in spot freight rates over the past few weeks. The Danish company now estimates its underlying EBITDA forecast to be between 8,000 and 10,000 million dollars, compared to the previous range of 4,500 to 7,000 million.
The revision also affects the underlying EBIT, which Maersk now estimates to be between 2,000 and 4,000 million dollars. The previous estimate contemplated a much weaker scenario, with a range that went from losses of 1,500 million to a profit of 1,000 million dollars. The company has also improved its forecast for free cash flow, which is now expected to be at a negative minimum of 1,500 million dollars, compared to the previous estimate of at least 3,000 million negative.
The new financial scenario is supported by a higher forecast for global container market growth. Maersk now estimates that global volumes will grow by around 4% in 2026, compared to the previous range of between 2% and 4%. The company links this revision to the strength of demand, with a particular incidence in Asian traffic, and to the recent evolution of prices in the spot market.
"Continued strong demand in the container market, particularly in the Far East, and a recent sustained increase in spot market rates means that A.P. Møller – Maersk upgrades its guidance for the full year 2026," the company stated in its communication to the market. The update of forecasts comes after an initial exercise influenced by geopolitical volatility, ship diversions, and pressure on operating costs.
In the first quarter of 2026, Maersk reported a total EBIT of 340 million dollars, supported by the performance of its port terminal and logistics areas. However, its Ocean division recorded losses of 192 million dollars, compared to the profit of 743 million obtained a year earlier. The margin of this unit was in negative territory, at -2.3%, mainly due to falling freight rates, which offset the impact of cost-saving measures, the reduction of certain fuel costs, and high levels of fleet utilization.
Maersk's maritime activity has also been affected by the rising cost of fuel and changes in routes linked to the crisis in the Middle East. The company had indicated that the 2026 scenario depended, among other factors, on the evolution of sector overcapacity, the delivery of new ships, and the timeline for reopening maritime corridors affected by instability in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
The change in Maersk's forecasts reflects a significant modification in the market outlook. The company has shifted from contemplating the possibility of closing the year with losses of up to 1,500 million dollars at the EBIT level to predicting a profit that could reach 4,000 million. This change occurs in the context of tension in the effective capacity supply, congestion on certain routes, and early shipping decisions by shippers in light of the risk of new disruptions.
In recent weeks, spot rates for containers have seen sharp increases, coinciding with an advancement of the high season and with some shippers needing to secure space before potential additional bottlenecks. According to a report from HSBC Global Investment Research cited by Seatrade Maritime, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 3.8% weekly, reaching 3,240 points, its highest level since August 2024. The same report indicates that spot rates rose by 7% towards the United States and by 6% towards Europe, placing the index 143% above pre-conflict levels.
The consulting firm Linerlytica, also cited in the market analysis, indicated that only nine container ships, six of which were Iranian, had left the Gulf after the memorandum of understanding, while more than 50 units remained held or pending clarification on the transit conditions from Iran. This situation has added uncertainty to a shipping network already subjected to operational restrictions in several strategic corridors.
Maersk's revision will be closely monitored by the entire sector, as the company is one of the main indicators of global maritime trade evolution. Its new forecasts point to a more favorable year for regular liner shipping companies than initially expected at the beginning of the year, although market equilibrium will still be conditioned by the evolution of Asian demand, the management of available capacity, fuel costs, and the situation of routes affected by geopolitical instability.
