The Gemini alliance, formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, is recording a contraction of its market share in deployed capacity on the main trade routes from Asia, according to an analysis published by the consulting firm Sea-Intelligence in issue 756 of its publicationSunday Spotlight. The decline is concentrated on the Trans-Pacific and Asia-North Europe routes, and occurs in a context of strong global capacity expansion led by Ocean Alliance.
According to data from Sea-Intelligence, based on the eight-week moving average of deployed weekly capacity, Gemini shows a downward trajectory on the three main routes analyzed. On the Asia-West Coast North America route, Gemini's share will decrease from 15% in April 2025 to 13% in May 2026. On the Asia-East Coast North America route, the share reduces from 20% to 17% in the same period. And on the Asia-North Europe route, the contraction is from 27% to 23%. In all three cases, the decline is concentrated almost exclusively in a narrow window between mid-February and May 2026.
However, the Danish consulting firm's analysis clarifies that this loss of market share does not stem from a withdrawal of capacity by Gemini. The gross figures in TEUs show that the weekly deployed capacity by the alliance remains relatively stable on these routes. The drop in its relative share is, therefore, a direct consequence of the overall market deployment expansion, which, after the usual drop due to the Chinese New Year, is bouncing back rapidly. This expansion is predominantly being driven by Ocean Alliance, which is scheduling services close to maximum design capacity on these routes, with few canceled calls (blank sailings).
Sea-Intelligence points out that this divergence highlights two fundamentally different operational models. Ocean Alliance shows capacity growth accompanied by high weekly volatility, indicating a very elastic network architecture, capable of scaling its offer to absorb market volume expansion. Gemini, on the contrary, shows a low volatility profile. Its rigid deployment pattern indicates a synchronized and closed network that does not structurally flex to capture sudden demand spikes.
