More than 200,000 TEUs of capacity of deep-sea container ships could be trapped in the Persian Gulf as a consequence of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, according to a network stress analysis published by the maritime consultancy Sea-Intelligence. The study was conducted following the decision of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which on February 28 declared the closure of this strategic route to commercial traffic, warning that any vessel attempting to transit through it would be considered a military target. The measure is interpreted as a strategic retaliation in response to the bombings by the United States and Israel on Iran.
Sea-Intelligence has used the itineraries published by shipping companies to model two scenarios. In a baseline scenario, where vessels strictly adhere to their scheduled timings without delays, at least 156,074 TEUs of deep-sea capacity could not leave the Persian Gulf. However, by applying historical delay margins that reflect usual operating conditions, the blocked capacity rises to 204,159 TEUs in an adjusted scenario. The difference of 48,085 TEUs represents additional capacity that would effectively remain trapped simply because vessels are already accumulating delays against their original schedule, illustrating how existing inefficiencies in regular shipping networks can amplify the impact of geopolitical disruptions, according to the consultancy.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, has warned that a prolonged disruption would generate immediate domino effects across the global container network. Vessels currently en route to the Persian Gulf would be forced to abort their rotations, causing sudden cargo shifts to alternative transshipment hubs outside the bottleneck, such as Salalah, Colombo, and Singapore. This sudden diversion would raise occupancy density at terminals, degrading port productivity and generating delays in the berthing of vessels from shipping lines completely unrelated to the traffic of the Persian Gulf.
Murphy also pointed out a particularly relevant structural effect: because the Persian Gulf is a net importing region, deep-sea services operating in it often load empty containers to reposition them to Asian manufacturing centers. The simultaneous blocking of more than 200,000 TEUs of capacity would deprive Asian export ports of vital equipment, risking a container shortage in the Far East.
