Spain will allocate less than 5% of the revenues that this activity will contribute to the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) for the modernization of its maritime sector between 2026 and 2030. This is noted in the first report from the Naval and Ocean Engineering Observatory in Spain, a new initiative promoted by the Official College of Naval and Ocean Engineers (COIN), which warns of the possible consequences of this imbalance on industrial competitiveness, skilled employment, and connectivity of island territories.
The analysis is based on estimates from the Spanish Shipowners’ Association (ANAVE), according to which maritime transport will contribute more than 5 billion euros to the European emissions trading system during the 2026-2030 period. In contrast to this figure, the National Action Plan for the Decarbonization of Maritime Transport, approved in November 2025, allocates 250 million euros to facilitate the transformation of the sector. This difference places the expected reinvestment below 5% of the revenues generated by maritime transport itself.
The Observatory considers that this scenario poses the need to review the mechanisms for returning the revenues associated with carbon to the activities that directly bear the costs of the energy transition. In the case of maritime transport, the incorporation into the EU ETS implies an increase in operating costs for shipping companies, operators, and logistical chains, while also requiring investments in energy efficiency, alternative fuels, ship adaptation, port infrastructures, and low-emission technologies.
"The ecological transition of maritime transport must become an industrial opportunity for Spain. If the resources generated by the sector do not return to the sector itself, we will be losing technological capacity, skilled employment, and competitiveness at a decisive moment for the future of the blue economy," said Rafael Velasco, coordinator of the Naval and Ocean Engineering Observatory of Spain.
The report reminds that maritime transport is not only subject to the EU ETS but also to the obligations derived from the FuelEU Maritime regulation, which introduces new requirements related to the use of lower carbon intensity fuels and the progressive reduction of emissions in maritime activity. This dual regulatory pressure increases the investment needs in clean technologies, energy efficiency systems, electrification, renewable fuels, and technical solutions adapted to different types of fleets.
The document also points out that Spain has not yet completed the transposition of Directive (EU) 2023/959, whose deadline ended on December 31, 2023. This directive establishes that the revenues generated from emissions trading must be allocated to climate action-related objectives. For the Observatory, the lack of a sufficient channeling of these resources towards the maritime sector limits Spain's capacity to turn decarbonization into industrial activity, technological development, and specialized employment.
The analysis also compares the situation of maritime transport with that of other industrial sectors that do have specific compensation mechanisms for indirect carbon costs. Maritime transport, despite being directly subjected to the European emissions trading system, currently lacks equivalent instruments, which can create a disadvantageous position compared to other productive areas and European countries with reinvestment strategies more linked to industrial development.
One of the central aspects of the report is the impact on skilled employment. According to estimates from the Observatory, for every five million euros that are not reinvested annually in naval decarbonization projects, the opportunity to generate between two and three direct jobs in naval and ocean engineering is lost, in addition to at least fourteen additional jobs in the industrial value chain. These effects impact engineering firms, shipyards, equipment manufacturers, technology companies, specialized consulting firms, research centers, and service providers linked to the blue economy.
The report places this impact in an industrial context where private shipbuilding generates around 3 billion euros annually in Spain and maintains a network of auxiliary companies with technical capacity in design, manufacturing, system integration, and maintenance. The reduced availability of resources for decarbonization projects can diminish activity in areas with a high technological component, especially at a time when European regulations are speeding up demand for low-emission naval solutions.
The Observatory also warns of the risks to the connectivity of archipelagos and non-peninsular territories. A significant part of the inter-island and cabotage fleet could fall outside the current support mechanisms for decarbonization, particularly for vessels under 5,000 GT that the European Commission plans to include in the EU ETS by the end of 2026. This situation particularly affects the Balearic Islands, Canary Islands, Ceuta, and Melilla, where maritime transport constitutes an essential infrastructure for the mobility of people, goods, and supplies.
The adaptation cost of these fleets can have effects on the provision of regular services, the renewal of vessels, and the planning of routes in markets with a high dependence on maritime transport. For the Observatory, the decarbonization policy must take into account the territorial particularities of Spain and the role these connections play in the economic and social cohesion of non-peninsular territories.
The report also highlights the risk of losing talent in naval and ocean engineering. The demand for specialized profiles is growing in Europe, associated with decarbonization programs, marine renewable energies, defense, digitalization, artificial intelligence applied to the maritime sector, and offshore development. Spain has training and professional capacity in this area, but the lack of a stable investment horizon may encourage some young professionals to develop their careers in countries like Norway, Denmark, Germany, or the Netherlands, where there are wider-ranging industrial and technological programs linked to the reinvestment of carbon-associated revenues.
The Naval and Ocean Engineering Observatory was created with the goal of providing independent analyses on the main challenges of the Spanish maritime ecosystem. Its activities will focus on energy transition, defense, digitalization, marine renewable energies, artificial intelligence, and the evolution of skilled employment linked to the sea. The initiative will continuously analyze the situation of naval and ocean engineering and sectors such as maritime transport, shipbuilding, boating, fishing, offshore activities, marine energy, and the infrastructures related to the water cycle.
Through periodic reports, sectoral indicators, and specific studies, the Observatory aims to become a reference tool for public administrations, companies, and professionals in the sector. Its first report places the reinvestment of EU ETS revenues as one of the central issues to determine Spain's ability to adapt its maritime industry to European regulatory demands, maintain skilled employment, and sustain its position in the blue economy.